
The nominations for the 89th Academy Awards were announced this past Tuesday. I was reasonably happy with them, though I wish the Academy would have shown some love to Martin Scorseses underappreciated Silence. Here are my thoughts on ten major categories, who I want to win, who I think will win, and in some cases whos so sure to win that a lot of analysis isnt necessary. Sadly, thats true of many of the major categories, and its the lesser ones that inspire the most debate.
(Note: I tried to see as many of these movies as I could, but a few slipped through my fingers. Those films are marked with a star, though I dont think any of them have enough momentum to be taken seriously in their respective categories)
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
The Academy didnt nominate La La Land for 14 awards just so they could give Best Picture to something else. Its sure to win.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by
the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
If I had my way, Best Picture and Best Director would always match up. It doesnt always work out that way, but I still expect Chazelle to win.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the
Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain
Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
If theres one award thats locked up tighter than La La Land for Best Picture, its Casey Affleck winning Best Actor for playing possibly the most haunted character in cinematic history.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert,
Elle
Ruth Negga,
Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster
Jenkins
It seems like everybody has taken a turn at being the favorite for this category throughout awards season. The Academy tends to reward portrayals of powerful historical figures, so my prediction leans toward Portman, followed by Stone because of all the La La Land love, but the other three arent as unlikely as less-likely nominees in other categories.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali,
Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell
or High Water
Lucas Hedges,
Manchester by the
Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal
Animals
I was thrilled to see Michael Shannon score a surprise nomination. He was by far the best thing about Nocturnal Animals and I was genuinely perplexed that his non-nominated costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson (a terrifying villain, but a bit one-note) had been getting all the awards season spotlight up to this point. But he isnt winning an Oscar for a film that clearly turned off a lot of voters. I expect it to go to Ali, who makes the most of his alarmingly brief performance.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams,
Manchester by the Sea
Davis is the favorite here because shes been pushed harder, she has a hit TV show, and this marks a record-breaking third nomination for an African- American actress. As thrilling as it would be to see her win, Im inclined to go with Harris, the only player from the outstanding ensemble of Moonlight to pull triple duty and appear in all three phases of the film.
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster*
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Manchester by the Sea is effortlessly one of the funniest films of the year and, more notoriously, one of the saddest. La La Land, while far from the vapid fluff piece some people dismiss it as, just doesnt take the same pains in developing its characters. I wouldnt even say La La Land is my second choice here, that would be Hell or High Water. Im really passionate about Manchester on this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Moonlight is my favorite kind of adapted screenplay, the kind where everybody sounds so natural that it doesnt sound like theres a screenplay at all, let alone an adapted one. Easy choice Moonlight.
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini*
The Red Turtle*
Zootopia
So the Academy found room for not one but two movies that havent played on more than 15 screens in the U.S., but they didnt have room for Finding Dory? Fine, Ill go with one of the other Disney movies. Id be perfectly happy with Zootopia, but Ill give the edge to Moana because of the songs.
Best Original Song
Audition (The Fools Who Dream),
La La Land
Cant Stop the Feeling, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James
Foley Story*
How Far Ill Go, Moana
Speaking of the songs from Moana, Id love to see How Far Ill Go win here. Its super-catchy and it would make Lin-Manuel Miranda the youngest EGOT winner ever. But I just dont see it. The song hasnt caught on the way I thought it would, and La La Land prides itself on being a musical so much that to lose in this category would be an embarrassment. The question is which of the two nominated songs will actually win? City of Stars is constantly present in the film, whereas Audition makes for a spellbinding single scene. Ill give it to Audition, but its close. Maybe the two La La Land songs can cancel each other out and How Far Ill Go can sneak in a win. But probably not.
The 89th Academy Awards air Sunday, February 26 at 7 p.m. Eastern/4pm Pacific on ABC.
Contact Bob Garver at rrg251@nyu.edu.
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